Is The Economy Finally Turning Around

This is a long term thread. My last post on it was almost 4 years ago. No one really knows what will happen with the economy tomorrow much less six months from now. It is possible the stock market could go down for a while, but after a huge tax cut US business is going to have a very profitable time in the next year or two. So I suspect the markets will stay good with some setbacks.

The RV industry has had the wind at it's back the last few years. There are many favorable trends helping it. I bought some shares of Winnebago the day after they bought Country Coach a couple of years ago and they have done well.

I would also guess that the economy would improve if there was less fighting between our politicians and more time spent on working for their constituents. Right now there are too many in the power in both politicians and media who act like children instead of adults.

 

If the promised steel and aluminum tariffs go into effect, I expect the economy will take a significant hit as prices and unemployment rise.

 

It is expected that the tariffs will raise the cost of an automobile by around $100.00. Material costs are minor compared to the costs of labor, profit and overhead in most manufacturing. While there may be some targeted retaliation, I doubt a full scale trade war is going to erupt, especially since exports from those countries targeted by the tariffs are much more substantial than what the US exports to them. Maybe a company like Boeing will be targeted, but with a 9 plus year backlog of orders, it will be a long time before those tariffs have a material effect on Boeing's production.
I further expect that with the tax cuts coming into full effect, we will see a surge in corporate net profitability that will offset any added costs due to some tariffs that are likely to be short lived. Our current president has a history of bluster and then ramping down the rhetoric to achieve his goals. My guess is this tariff kerfuffle is yet another one of those moments.

 

I hope you're right! But alienating long time allies and neighbors that supply 25% of our steel does not seem like a smart move to me. According to Econofact, 80 times more people work in steel using industries than work in steel producing industries in the US, and they're nowhere near being able to pick up the slack if those countries cut us off in retaliation. Fingers crossed...